Auckland could be headed for a multi-year shortage of new apartments after a bulge of new projects comes to completion next year.
Research by Colliers International shows that there is only 12 months' supply of apartments in the pipeline.
"In major cities with population growth we would expect supply to be anywhere between 12 to 24 months," Colliers national director of residential project marketing Pete Evans said.
He had been suggesting, somewhat lightheartedly, that Auckland could be under supplied for a decade, "but it certainly will be for five years".
Although a large number of apartments - the highest for a decade - should be finished next year, Colliers says most have already been sold off the plans.
One big obstacle to developer has been a drying up of bank finance. Evans said some of those developers would have paid top dollar for their land and might now sit tight until the economics improved.
Most apartment buildings took two to three years to complete, so the current undersupply would remain for the foreseeable future, unless population growth tapered off, land prices fell or the banks relented on their funding criteria.
The council's unitary plan had addressed the planning issues, but "unless people stop coming [or banks change their stance] it's going to be very difficult to keep up".
Central government could also play a part, he said.
"The Government can't control the banks but they can control zonings and getting services out to the areas that need them."
Other headwinds were a comparatively small number of big development companies capable of ramping up construction and the shortage of construction workers.
According to Colliers' estimates, Auckland has 3975 new apartments either planned or under construction, and 138 new apartment buildings due for completion by 2020.
But like houses, prices for new Auckland apartment prices are rising strongly, up 12 per cent in the last year.
The average apartment now costs $1.12 million and the most expensive place for apartments was the CBD, were prices averaged $1.32m, up 29 per cent.
On the city's fringe, apartments in Grey Lynn, Kingsland, Mount Eden and Newton now average $1.28m, a 15 per cent increase.
Things were cheaper in suburbs like Hobsonville, Onehunga, Albany and Stonefields, where they averaged $824,000.
Evans says that was where apartments were heading. While traditionally apartments have been mostly confined to the CBD, two-thirds of both new and future units were now on the city fringe or in suburban areas.
And no longer were they just selling to students or renters. Apartments were being built to a better standard because owner-occupiers were now in the game.
Luxury apartments were popping up in desirable suburbs such as Remuera, Meadowbank and the Eastern Bays and setting new records as a result.
An existing apartment in Remuera recently sold for $8.7m, achieving a new Auckland record of $29,000 per square metre, and Evans believes prices will soar even higher as expectations rose.
"New apartments in prime waterfront locations with unrestricted views and premium finishings will be able to achieve prices of up to $10m, or $30,000 per square metre," he said.
Evans said currently the demand remained high for houses over $5m in central and waterfront suburbs of Auckland.
"These buyers generally want boutique developments in prime locations with more amenity to meet their changing lifestyle requirements. They want something special and unique that cannot be repeated."